CCS Disability Action
Training Room,
Lower building – turn right into long carpark, drive to far building at the end
14 Erson Ave., Royal Oak.
Ample parking. Don’t be late since the doors have to be locked from the inside each night

WHEN: Thursday 19 August 2010

Time: 7:15pm for 7:30 start, same location

Keynote Presentation: Understanding the Black Swan

Presenter: Dr Michael Lauren

Physicist Dr Michael Lauren is one of the few commentators in the major New Zealand media to point out the flaws in the traditional “it’s time in that counts” approach to stock market investment.

Dr Lauren has shown mathematically that fluctuations within any given year can be much greater than considerably longer periods, meaning that a decade’s worth of gains can be wiped out in a few days of losses. This idea has recently been written about in the best-selling book “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

In this talk, Dr Lauren will explain why share market investment is not as simple as “it’s time in that counts”. The talk will be of great importance to anyone trying to use quantitative methods to develop share trading strategies.

Topics to be addressed include:

. Unpredictability and volatility
. How rare events have big impacts and the dangers of over-fitting data
. How the market really prices shares
. Why this makes charting so valuable
. What trading techniques are likely to work in the long term

Dr Lauren is a physicist and has been studying this area of science for nearly two decades. He previously spoke at STANZ in 2002. He also wrote a popular article that appeared in the New Zealand Herald that year. Further information, including links to this article, can be found at his Website:

Door Charge
$10 for members, $25 for visitors, Membership: $75 per annum.

Coffee and biscuits follow the meeting where it is an opportunity to talk to other members. The committee looks forward to seeing you and remember visitors are always welcome.

Please invite your friends to come.

“Everyone can now participate profitably in high activity trading” Sean Nofal

DVDs and Videos
DVDs and Videos are available to hire. Please refer to our web site and place your order before our next meeting.